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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature is expected to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect article 5” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would serve as guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not received the details of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to forces of NATO member states operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. A key demand involves Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard formations rather than the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our flight right now – instability,” said the president, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.