A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has possesses something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
